How likely is it at your next group ride or mass start event you will cross paths with a person who is COVID19 positive? Maybe you are planning to ride the Georgia State of Gravel fondo in Green County Georgia, USA this weekend? Or join a small group ride with 10 friends in Madrid, Spain?
Answers to these questions are available on a free, peer-reviewed COVID-19 Risk Assessment Planning Tool developed by Georgia Tech University and Stanford University in the USA.
The tool is designed to help people easily assess COVID19 risks associated with group events of different sizes across the USA, United Kingdom, France, Spain, Portugal, Italy, Switzerland, Czechoslovakia and more.
To find out how likely you are to encounter a coronavirus-infected rider at an event, say State of Georgia Gravel this weekend, you simply open the tool, adjust the slid bar on the left of the map to the event size (maybe 100 riders), then hover the cursor over the location where the event will take place (Green County, Georgia USA).
The tool shows there is an 56% chance at least one rider at the event will be COVID positive and spread the virus before, during and after the event.
Hmmm, maybe a good weekend to opt for a solo gravel ride in Georgia…
Using the Global Risk Estimate option, a small 10 person group ride in Madrid, Spain this weekend will have only a 9% chance of having a rider that is COVID19 positive attend.
That’s a little more reasonable, especially of you really, really trust your little 10 person pod of riders…
Here is the link to the COVID-19 Risk Assessment Planning Tool (Be patient as it might be slow due to high demand)